In today’s note, we update our forecasts for US Treasury yields across the curve to reflect more broad-based and persistent price pressures and theaccompanying hawkish Fed pivot. We see the benchmark 10y UST yields endingthe year at 2.7%, up from our prior projection of 2.25%. The risks to our forecastare two-sided; a deescalation of the war in Ukraine or more persistent inflationcould mean even higher realized levels, whereas the opposite could result inlower levels.
