#2509
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Keymaster

One feature of our forecast is a modest inversion of the 2s10s yield curve by

nyear-end. However, we note that the nominal curve tends to invert more easily ina high inflation environment, and we could see earlier and/or deeper curveinversions this cycle. In such an environment, a deeper nominal curve inversionmay be needed to produce the same recession odds in models as seen in morerecent business cycles.

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